Five Kashmir Glacial Lakes Face ‘Very High’ GLOF Risk

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Srinagar, Sep 04: Five glacial lakes in the Kashmir Himalaya have been classified as having a “very high” susceptibility to glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs), with modelling indicating that a potential outburst could expose 2,704 downstream buildings, 15 major bridges, roads and a hydropower project, according to a study published in the Journal of Glaciology.

The study assessed 155 glacial lakes across the Kashmir Himalaya using multiple indicators associated with GLOF susceptibility. Bramsar, Nundkol, Bhagsar, Chirsar and Gangabal were placed in the very-high-susceptibility category.

Another 35 lakes were classified as having high susceptibility, while 77 were placed in the moderate-susceptibility category. The researchers noted that the factors contributing to susceptibility varied from one lake to another.

Bramsar recorded the highest susceptibility index, followed by Nundkol, Bhagsar, Chirsar and Gangabal.

According to the assessment, a potential outburst from Bramsar and Chirsar could affect 406 buildings and five bridges. Potential events involving Nundkol and Gangabal could expose 1,184 buildings, four bridges and a hydropower project, while an outburst from Bhagsar could affect 1,114 buildings and six bridges, in addition to posing a potential threat to the Mughal Road.

Collectively, the five lakes were assessed as having potential downstream exposure involving 2,704 buildings and 15 major bridges.

The researchers, however, cautioned that these exposure estimates should be treated as indicative, as the assessment relied on buffer-based modelling rather than a full physically based simulation of an actual flood event.

The study recommended sustained satellite and field-based monitoring of vulnerable glacial lakes, along with hydrodynamic modelling and the development of community-based early-warning systems to strengthen preparedness and reduce potential risks to downstream populations and infrastructure. [KNT]